How Anacleto projects a savings plan by recombining blocks of past monthly returns, what the percentiles mean, and why it is not a forecast.
The plan page answers "where could my monthly contribution take me?" without assuming a fixed return.
Anacleto builds 5,000 paths by recombining blocks of 24 consecutive months of past returns, in random order: US equities (S&P 500) converted to euro, US government bonds hedged to euro, and gold in euro, from 1997 onwards. Using blocks rather than single months keeps the way markets move in streaks: crises and recoveries stay together. Each path applies your contributions, the weights your rules produce, trading costs and the ongoing charges of your ETFs, and is expressed in today's euros, net of inflation.
The paths can only rearrange the past: a future worse than anything in the history used is not in them. Taxes are not included. It is a way to see the range of outcomes, not a forecast.