Guides

Plain-English guides to the CAPE, the equity risk premium, trend, credit spread, yield curve, drawdown, returns and plan projections.

Anacleto is a calculation tool: it shows numbers, it does not tell you what to buy. These guides explain where each number comes from, what it has meant in the past and where its limits are, so you can decide for yourself how much weight to give it.

Shiller CAPE: what the cyclically adjusted P/E tells you: How the Shiller CAPE is built, why it compares prices with ten years of real earnings, and how Anacleto turns it into a signal with rolling thresholds.
Equity risk premium: earnings yield minus the real bond yield: What the equity risk premium measures, how Anacleto computes it from the CAPE and the 10-year real yield, and what its thresholds mean.
Trend: the S&P 500 against its 10-month moving average: Why a price below its 10-month moving average is treated as a warning, what the research says, and how often the signal changes.
Credit spread: Baa corporate bonds over Treasuries: How the gap between Baa corporate yields and 10-year Treasuries measures stress in the economy, and the thresholds Anacleto uses.
Yield curve: 10-year minus 3-month Treasury rates: What an inverted yield curve is, why it has preceded most US recessions since 1970, and how Anacleto turns it into a signal.
How your rules turn the thermometers into portfolio weights: The arithmetic behind Anacleto's weights: a base equity weight, a step per signal, a band, and a fixed share of gold, all chosen by you.
Time-weighted vs money-weighted return: which one to read: Why your portfolio shows two returns, how each is computed, and why they differ when you add money over time.
Drawdown: measuring the fall from the peak: What a drawdown is, how Anacleto extends it back with your ETFs' own history, and how to read the warning and red thresholds.
How the plan projection works: 5,000 paths from market history: How Anacleto projects a savings plan by recombining blocks of past monthly returns, what the percentiles mean, and why it is not a forecast.