How your rules turn the thermometers into portfolio weights

The arithmetic behind Anacleto's weights: a base equity weight, a step per signal, a band, and a fixed share of gold, all chosen by you.

Anacleto does not have an opinion on how much equity you should hold. It applies your rules to the five thermometers and shows the weights they produce.

The arithmetic

Each thermometer gives +1 (green), 0 (neutral) or −1 (red), multiplied by its weight (1.5 for the CAPE, 1 for the others). The sum goes from −5.5 to +5.5.
Equities = your base weight + your step × sum of signals. With a base of 70% and a step of 5 points, a sum of −1.5 gives 70% − 7.5 = 62.5%.
The result is kept within your band (for example 40%–85%).
Gold takes your fixed share of the total; the rest goes to bonds.

Time travel

On the thermometers page you can move back to any month since 1934 and see the readings and weights with only the data available at that time, applied to today's rules. It shows how the rules would have behaved, not what anyone actually did.

What it is not

The weights are the output of a formula you chose. Anacleto never sends orders and does not tell you whether to follow them; it shows the gap between your portfolio and your rules and lets you decide.